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☆ With inflation stalling, the long-predicted storm clouds in the economy may actually be forming
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —Jamie Dimon warned two years ago that storm clouds and a hurricane were brewing in the US economy. On top of that, the unemployment rate has stayed below 4% for more than two years despite 11 rate hikes intended to slow the economy in an effort to curb decades-high inflation. But potentially persistent inflation isn’t the only red flag in the economy right now. Small-business owners haven’t felt this bad about the economy in over a decadeAlthough the economy is booming by many measures, including last month’s blowout jobs report, small business owners aren’t feeling gung-ho about it. That’s significant because that cohort is experiencing an even lower unemployment rate than the nation overall.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Michelle Bowman, she’s, Bowman, ” Bowman, haven’t, Holly Wade, Bill Dunkelberg, aren’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, FactSet, National Federation of Independent, York Locations: New York

☆ Small business optimism hits 11-year low as inflation fears won't go away
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Small business confidence hit its lowest level in more than 11 years for March as proprietors worried that inflation is still very much a problem. A quarter of all respondents reported that rising costs were the biggest problem. "Small business optimism has reached the lowest level since 2012 as owners continue to manage numerous economic headwinds," NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said. "Inflation has once again been reported as the top business problem on Main Street and the labor market has only eased slightly." A quarter of all respondents cited inflation, and in particular higher input and labor costs, as their most pressing issue.

Persons: Bill Dunkelberg Organizations: Costco Wholesale, National Federation of Independent Business, The Labor Department Locations: Colchester , Vermont

The housing market began 2024 in the doldrums as housing starts and permits for new construction both fell, the Census Bureau reported on Friday. Starts fell 14.8%, way more than the flat reading expected by economists. “High mortgage rates, with maybe a dash of cold weather, caused starts and permits to fall from December. The optimism is a turnaround from August 2023, when 80% of small businesses surveyed said their long-term financial confidence was being negatively affected by the economy. Some 50% of small business owners said they were planning to expand in 2024.

Persons: didn’t, ”, Robert Frick, Lisa Sturtevant, Ksenia Potapov, “, they’re, Bill Dunkelberg Organizations: Census, Navy Federal Credit Union, MLS, “, National Federation of Independent Business, American Express Locations: American

☆ Small business sentiment dropped by most in 13 months in January as inflation, labor costs bite
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Small business owners' confidence level dropped in January, the National Federation of Independent Business said. AdvertisementSmall business sentiment logged the biggest drop in 13 months in January as business owners say inflation and high labor costs are creating headwinds. On top of that, small business owners anticipating increased sales in the next three months declined to -16% from -4% the prior month. "In January, optimism among small business owners dropped as inflation remains a key obstacle on Main Street." "The weaker small business optimism print seems at odds with a notable increase in consumer confidence during January," Wells Fargo said in a note.

Persons: —, NFIB, they're, Bill Dunkelberg, Wells Fargo Organizations: National Federation of Independent Business, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ The biggest risks US businesses face in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

But, while businesses have plenty to be grateful for and much to be optimistic about, the coast isn’t clear. Last week, surveys from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) and The Conference Board detailed the biggest risks that businesses are currently worried about. Here are some of the biggest risks for American businesses in 2024. Those financial stresses can reduce the willingness of banks to lend to others businesses and also to consumers,” she said. Bank earnings look really bad this quarter.

Persons: there’s, “, John Maynard Keynes, ”, ” Dana Peterson, Bill Dunkelberg, ” Peterson, ” Suzanne Clark, We’re, Mike Johnson, Chuck Schumer, Fitch, Clark, JPMorgan Chase, Nicole Goodkind, Krystal Hur, FactSet, Martin Luther King Jr, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, US, of Commerce, of American, Conference Board, Conference, CNN, Fed, Corporate, US Chamber of Commerce, chamber’s State of American, AAA, Moody’s Investors Service, US Chamber, Commerce’s, Google, Citigroup, Bank, JPMorgan, FactSet, Revenue, Profit, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Bank of America, FDIC, Citi, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Alcoa, National Statistics, US Commerce Department, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, Wells, Corporate America, chamber’s State, BlackRock, Amazon, Argentina, Japan

Consumers fell prey to inflation that remains high, especially for life’s necessities like food and gasoline, according to the latest monthly survey from the University of Michigan. The consumer sentiment survey fell by 7% overall to 63 from 68.1 in September, while the current conditions reading dropped to 66.7 from 71.4 and the future expectations was at 60.7, down from 66 a month ago. Notably, expectations for the annual rate of inflation a year from now rose to 3.8% from 3.2% in September. “Assessments of personal finances declined about 15%, primarily on a substantial increase in concerns over inflation, and one-year expected business conditions plunged about 19%,” said Joanne Hsu, survey director. “Owners remain pessimistic about future business conditions, which has contributed to the low optimism they have regarding the economy,” said Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, Sam Bullard, Joe Brusuelas, Tuan Nguyen, NFIB, Bill Dunkelberg, JP Morgan Chase, Jamie Dimon Organizations: University of Michigan, Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wells Locations: U.S, Washington

☆ Inflation woes persist for small businesses as they struggle to hire
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington CNN —America’s small businesses felt gloomier in August as they continued to struggle with inflation and hiring qualified workers, according to a survey from the National Federation of Independent Business released Tuesday. Optimism among more than 600 small businesses surveyed declined in August from the prior month, snapping a three-month streak of improving sentiment. The share of small business owners saying they had job openings that were hard to fill stood at 40% last month, down slightly from July but still historically high. “With small business owners’ views about future sales growth and business conditions discouraging, owners want to hire and make money now from strong consumer spending,” said Bill Dunkelberg, the NFIB’s chief economist, in the release. The US economy remains on strong footing, despite rapid rate hikes, with consumer spending jumping 0.8% in July and retail sales advancing 0.7% that month.

Persons: Washington CNN —, ”, Bill Dunkelberg, Goldman Sachs, Simona Mocuta Organizations: Washington CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, American Bankers, Economic, Committee, State Street Global Advisors

A trio of economic reports on Tuesday found the U.S. economy generally facing slowing inflation, a weakening but still challenging labor market and diminishing odds of an imminent recession. Yet inflation remains a concern for many businesses, especially smaller ones, according to the August small business optimism index from NFIB. Although the panel of economists sees the economy slowing in the quarter that begins Oct. 1, they also see a reduction in the odds of a recession. The panel forecasts a 48% chance of a recession, down from 50% a month ago and 56% in July. At the same time, the economists see the unemployment rate rising from its current 3.8% to 4.5% by next summer.

Persons: ”, Bill Dunkelberg, ” Jeffrey Roach, “, ” Roach Organizations: Federal, Adobe, Computers, Chip, Wolters Kluwer, LPL Locations: U.S

☆ US small businesses feel better about the economy, but still can’t find enough skilled workers
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

As inflation continued to slow last month, optimism improved among the more than 1,300 small businesses surveyed, though it remains subdued compared to pre-pandemic times. Of owners hiring or trying to hire, 92% reported few or no qualified applicants for their available jobs, also unchanged from the prior month. “With small business owners’ views about future sales growth and business conditions dismal, owners want to hire and make money now from solid consumer spending,” said Bill Dunkelberg, the NFIB’s chief economist, in a release. Despite the economy holding steady, optimism among small businesses isn’t back to where it was before the pandemic. Even though businesses are still grappling with difficulties in hiring, cooling inflation has taken some of the edge off.

Persons: ”, Bill Dunkelberg, they’ve Organizations: DC CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal Reserve, Gross, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Labor Department, Wall Street Locations: Washington

☆ The number of small firms raising prices fell to the lowest level since March 2021
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —The number of small businesses saying they raised their prices fell in June to its lowest level since March 2021, according to a survey released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business. The share of respondents who reported higher prices dropped by three points last month to 29%, “still a very inflationary level but trending down,” the report showed. “Inflation and labor shortages continue to be great challenges for small businesses,” said the NFIB’s chief economist Bill Dunkelberg in a release. The current tight labor market has been keeping pressure on employers to raise prices to protect their margins — a dynamic that Fed Chair Jerome Powell discussed in recent remarks. The impact of improving supply chainsThe economy has slowed from its red-hot pace after rebounding from the pandemic, but some dynamics that prompted businesses to raise prices have been slowly unwinding.

Persons: “, Kieran Clancy, ”, Bill Dunkelberg, Jerome Powell, Mary Daly Organizations: DC CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Pantheon, Federal Reserve, Fed, Research, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington, San

☆ Growing number of small businesses worry about inflation and the economy’s future
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington CNN —A greater number of small businesses are worried about inflation and future business conditions, according to a survey released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business. The Fed keeps a close eye on inflation expectations to know whether or not US consumers have become used to a certain level of inflation. “Overall, small business owners are expressing concerns for future business conditions,” Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB’s chief economist, said in a release. The share of small business owners expecting better business conditions in the future declined in May while the share reporting that inflation “was their single most important problem in operating their business” increased. Officials are confident that inflation expectations remain in check.

Persons: “, Bill Dunkelberg, it’s, ”, Jerome Powell Organizations: Washington CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal, Fed, Labor Statistics, Index, Employers, Market Committee

☆ Layoffs mount, and Main Street still can't find any workers to hire for open jobs
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-19 | by ( Cheryl Winokur Munk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

"Inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages continue to limit the ability of many small businesses to meet the demand for their products and services." Meanwhile, the National Federation of Independent Business, the main small business trade group, reported last week the tenth-consecutive month of a confidence decline on Main Street, though little change in the need to hire more workers. When it comes to salary, small business owners generally don't play in the same league as larger companies. For example, don't just offer yoga or meditation apps or gym benefits; offer multiple ways employees can recharge, Lebovits said. Finally, small businesses need to understand what attracts job-seekers in the first place and play up these advantages in all of their communications with candidates.

☆ The first-time founder's ultimate guide to hiring top talent, from a Greylock partner, a former Googler, a Stanford lecturer, and a consultant to Spotify and JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2022-08-19 | by ( Shana Lebowitz | Jennifer Ortakales Dawkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

We asked a series of entrepreneurship experts — including founders, investors, and business professors — to outline some best hiring practices. Read more: The first-time founder's ultimate guide to pitching a VCNow, your goal in hiring the company's first few employees is to get the product or service to market. Patty McCord, former chief talent officer at Netflix, previously told Business Insider that managers should regularly evaluate whether their current team is equipped to tackle the next big challenge. Break down your organization into different levels: the senior management team, director-level managers, key employees, and employees in non-critical functions. As Sophie Kahn, cofounder of the sustainable jewelry company AUrate, told Business Insider, you can also consider your employees' personal preferences.

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